Free tools · From a weather model and from space
Drought in Ward 5, Masilonyana
October 2026: no drought in Ward 5, Masilonyana. The last three months had 155% of the usual rain, and the land is much greener than usual.
A drought score for each month from rain, evaporation and how green the land is: 0 is normal, and below −1 is drought. Our estimate from a weather model and from space, not an official drought declaration.
October 2026
- +1.90No droughtThe drought score
- +1.54Rain, 12 monthsFrom a weather model
- +0.93Rain, 3 months155% of normal
- +1.46Rain less evaporation, 12 monthsFrom a weather model
- +3.65GreennessAgainst normal, from space
Scores are in steps from normal (the 1991 to 2020 usual for the time of year): 0 is normal, −1 is dry (drier than about five years in six), −2 is very dry (drier than about 49 years in 50). What the scores mean.
The last two years
Show the numbers
| When or what | Figure |
|---|---|
| November 2024 | −0.24, no drought |
| December 2024 | −0.95, dry |
| January 2025 | −1.18, moderate drought |
| February 2025 | −1.17, moderate drought |
| March 2025 | −0.05, no drought |
| April 2025 | +0.99, no drought |
| May 2025 | +1.04, no drought |
| June 2025 | +0.95, no drought |
| July 2025 | +0.43, no drought |
| August 2025 | +0.81, no drought |
| September 2025 | +1.27, no drought |
| October 2025 | +1.34, no drought |
| November 2025 | +1.72, no drought |
| December 2025 | +1.46, no drought |
| January 2026 | +1.14, no drought |
| February 2026 | +0.77, no drought |
| March 2026 | +1.15, no drought |
| April 2026 | +1.38, no drought |
| May 2026 | +1.43, no drought |
| June 2026 | +1.49, no drought |
| July 2026 | +1.45, no drought |
| August 2026 | +1.30, no drought |
| September 2026 | +2.35, no drought |
| October 2026 | +1.90, no drought |
No drought Dry Moderate drought Severe drought Extreme drought
| Month | Index | Class | Rain, 3 months | Rain, 12 months | Rain less evaporation, 12 months | Greenness | Rain, 3 months, % of usual | Second reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 2026 | +1.90 | No drought | +0.93 | +1.54 | +1.46 | +3.65 | 155% | +1.45 |
| September 2026 | +2.35 | No drought | +2.07 | +1.89 | +1.56 | +3.86 | 338% | +1.50 |
| August 2026 | +1.30 | No drought | +0.56 | +1.61 | +1.36 | +1.69 | 125% | +1.39 |
| July 2026 | +1.45 | No drought | +0.65 | +1.69 | +1.39 | +2.08 | 134% | +1.46 |
| June 2026 | +1.49 | No drought | +1.56 | +1.69 | +1.43 | +1.28 | 198% | +1.51 |
| May 2026 | +1.43 | No drought | +1.80 | +1.64 | +1.39 | +0.88 | 188% | +1.57 |
| April 2026 | +1.38 | No drought | +1.87 | +1.47 | +1.36 | +0.83 | 172% | +1.51 |
| March 2026 | +1.15 | No drought | +0.36 | +2.01 | +1.73 | +0.50 | 109% | +2.28 |
| February 2026 | +0.77 | No drought | −0.22 | +1.99 | +1.73 | −0.41 | 90% | +2.21 |
| January 2026 | +1.14 | No drought | +0.46 | +1.94 | +1.55 | +0.61 | 113% | +1.74 |
| December 2025 | +1.46 | No drought | +1.09 | +1.89 | +1.56 | +1.29 | 147% | +1.88 |
| November 2025 | +1.72 | No drought | +1.60 | +1.57 | +1.26 | +2.46 | 194% | +1.43 |
Scores are in steps from normal: 0 is normal, −1 is dry, −2 is very dry. The second reading is the same 12-month rain score from a coarser version of the weather model (about 27 km against 9 km), so the two differ a little.
Every month since 2015
20152026
Show the numbers
| When or what | Figure |
|---|---|
| January 2015 | −0.62, dry |
| February 2015 | −1.42, moderate drought |
| March 2015 | −1.02, moderate drought |
| April 2015 | −0.93, dry |
| May 2015 | −0.82, dry |
| June 2015 | −0.68, dry |
| July 2015 | −0.35, no drought |
| August 2015 | −0.38, no drought |
| September 2015 | −0.30, no drought |
| October 2015 | −0.77, dry |
| November 2015 | −1.73, severe drought |
| December 2015 | −2.40, extreme drought |
| January 2016 | −1.91, severe drought |
| February 2016 | −1.74, severe drought |
| March 2016 | −1.79, severe drought |
| April 2016 | −1.91, severe drought |
| May 2016 | −1.25, moderate drought |
| June 2016 | −0.95, dry |
| July 2016 | −0.36, no drought |
| August 2016 | −0.42, no drought |
| September 2016 | −0.58, dry |
| October 2016 | −0.89, dry |
| November 2016 | −0.46, no drought |
| December 2016 | −0.54, dry |
| January 2017 | −0.28, no drought |
| February 2017 | +0.67, no drought |
| March 2017 | +0.65, no drought |
| April 2017 | +0.28, no drought |
| May 2017 | −0.31, no drought |
| June 2017 | −0.16, no drought |
| July 2017 | −0.38, no drought |
| August 2017 | −0.70, dry |
| September 2017 | −0.59, dry |
| October 2017 | −0.21, no drought |
| November 2017 | −0.65, dry |
| December 2017 | −0.63, dry |
| January 2018 | −1.04, moderate drought |
| February 2018 | −0.95, dry |
| March 2018 | −0.06, no drought |
| April 2018 | +0.29, no drought |
| May 2018 | +0.29, no drought |
| June 2018 | −0.15, no drought |
| July 2018 | −0.33, no drought |
| August 2018 | +0.10, no drought |
| September 2018 | +0.22, no drought |
| October 2018 | −0.06, no drought |
| November 2018 | −0.59, dry |
| December 2018 | −0.84, dry |
| January 2019 | −1.31, moderate drought |
| February 2019 | −1.12, moderate drought |
| March 2019 | −1.33, moderate drought |
| April 2019 | −0.47, no drought |
| May 2019 | −0.39, no drought |
| June 2019 | −0.29, no drought |
| July 2019 | −0.92, dry |
| August 2019 | −1.40, moderate drought |
| September 2019 | −1.41, moderate drought |
| October 2019 | −1.92, severe drought |
| November 2019 | −1.68, severe drought |
| December 2019 | −1.31, moderate drought |
| January 2020 | −0.48, no drought |
| February 2020 | −0.27, no drought |
| March 2020 | −0.20, no drought |
| April 2020 | −0.28, no drought |
| May 2020 | −0.41, no drought |
| June 2020 | −0.57, dry |
| July 2020 | −0.95, dry |
| August 2020 | −0.91, dry |
| September 2020 | −0.67, dry |
| October 2020 | −0.50, dry |
| November 2020 | +0.68, no drought |
| December 2020 | +0.93, no drought |
| January 2021 | +1.87, no drought |
| February 2021 | +1.82, no drought |
| March 2021 | +1.40, no drought |
| April 2021 | +0.91, no drought |
| May 2021 | +0.40, no drought |
| June 2021 | +0.29, no drought |
| July 2021 | +0.30, no drought |
| August 2021 | +0.83, no drought |
| September 2021 | +1.13, no drought |
| October 2021 | +1.60, no drought |
| November 2021 | +1.18, no drought |
| December 2021 | +1.49, no drought |
| January 2022 | +1.53, no drought |
| February 2022 | +0.95, no drought |
| March 2022 | +0.72, no drought |
| April 2022 | +1.04, no drought |
| May 2022 | +1.13, no drought |
| June 2022 | +1.01, no drought |
| July 2022 | +0.84, no drought |
| August 2022 | +0.60, no drought |
| September 2022 | +0.52, no drought |
| October 2022 | +0.40, no drought |
| November 2022 | +1.12, no drought |
| December 2022 | +0.75, no drought |
| January 2023 | +0.27, no drought |
| February 2023 | +0.96, no drought |
| March 2023 | +0.63, no drought |
| April 2023 | +0.27, no drought |
| May 2023 | +0.15, no drought |
| June 2023 | +0.28, no drought |
| July 2023 | +0.37, no drought |
| August 2023 | −0.16, no drought |
| September 2023 | +0.05, no drought |
| October 2023 | +0.24, no drought |
| November 2023 | −0.03, no drought |
| December 2023 | +0.22, no drought |
| January 2024 | +0.48, no drought |
| February 2024 | −0.55, dry |
| March 2024 | −1.41, moderate drought |
| April 2024 | −1.03, moderate drought |
| May 2024 | −0.73, dry |
| June 2024 | −0.31, no drought |
| July 2024 | −0.54, dry |
| August 2024 | −0.58, dry |
| September 2024 | −0.42, no drought |
| October 2024 | −0.47, no drought |
| November 2024 | −0.24, no drought |
| December 2024 | −0.95, dry |
| January 2025 | −1.18, moderate drought |
| February 2025 | −1.17, moderate drought |
| March 2025 | −0.05, no drought |
| April 2025 | +0.99, no drought |
| May 2025 | +1.04, no drought |
| June 2025 | +0.95, no drought |
| July 2025 | +0.43, no drought |
| August 2025 | +0.81, no drought |
| September 2025 | +1.27, no drought |
| October 2025 | +1.34, no drought |
| November 2025 | +1.72, no drought |
| December 2025 | +1.46, no drought |
| January 2026 | +1.14, no drought |
| February 2026 | +0.77, no drought |
| March 2026 | +1.15, no drought |
| April 2026 | +1.38, no drought |
| May 2026 | +1.43, no drought |
| June 2026 | +1.49, no drought |
| July 2026 | +1.45, no drought |
| August 2026 | +1.30, no drought |
| September 2026 | +2.35, no drought |
| October 2026 | +1.90, no drought |
The longest dry spells here (moderate or worse, month after month):
- August 2019 to December 20195 months; worst October 2019, −1.92 (severe drought)
- January 2019 to March 20193 months; worst March 2019, −1.33 (moderate drought)
- November 2015 to May 20167 months; worst December 2015, −2.40 (extreme drought)
A ward’s record starts in 2015; its municipality’s goes back to 1951.
The dams in Free State
- 98.7%Full nowAll 21 dams in the weekly report, by what they hold
- 95.8%A year ago
- Gariep Dam98.0% full, 94.4% a year ago
- Vanderkloof Dam98.7% full, 92.6% a year ago
- Sterkfontein Dam98.8% full, 99.0% a year ago
The province as a whole, not necessarily the dams that supply this place: we hold no link yet between a dam and the towns it supplies. Source: Department of Water and Sanitation, weekly State of Dams. Every dam, with its water surface from space since 2017.
Rain here
| Month | Rain | Normal |
|---|---|---|
| October 2026 | 13 mm | 59 mm |
| September 2026 | 107 mm | 16 mm |
| August 2026 | 21 mm | 17 mm |
| July 2026 | 6.6 mm | 7.8 mm |
| June 2026 | 20 mm | 13 mm |
| May 2026 | 33 mm | 23 mm |
7.8 mm so far in November; a normal November has 83 mm. The weather here, day by day · How green it is
Source
Rain and evaporation are modelled estimates from a weather reanalysis, averaged over the whole place, not station readings; greenness is measured from space. This is not an official drought declaration: those come from the National Disaster Management Centre.
How we worked this out
The drought index puts four measures on one scale, each in standard deviations from its 1991 to 2020 normal for the time of year (minus is drier): rain over the last 3 months and the last 12 (from ERA5-Land), rain less evaporation over 12 months (ERA5-Drought’s SPEI, so a hot, dry year counts for more), and how green the land is (from space, since 2017). The index is their mean.
What we changed: we summed ERA5-Land’s monthly rain over 3 and 12 months for each place and fitted it to a gamma distribution per calendar month (1991 to 2020) to get the SPI; averaged ERA5-Drought’s 0.25 degree SPEI and SPI over each place by its area in each cell; and took the mean of the parts.
Contains modified Copernicus Climate Change Service information 1950 to 2026 (ERA5-Land, for rain; ERA5-Drought, for SPEI). Neither the European Commission nor ECMWF is responsible for any use that may be made of the Copernicus information or data it contains. Greenness: NDVI Anomaly, Digital Earth Africa (CC BY 4.0), modified; Landsat imagery courtesy of the U.S. Geological Survey; contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data 2017 to 2026. Copernicus Climate Change Service: Monthly drought indices from 1940 to present derived from ERA5 reanalysis (ERA5-Drought). Climate Data Store (CDS), DOI 10.24381/9bea5e16.Muñoz Sabater, J. (2019): ERA5-Land monthly averaged data from 1950 to present, C3S CDS, DOI 10.24381/cds.68d2bb30. Under CC BY 4.0.
Dataset: drought monitor, release of 12 November 2026.